The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in November had some large percentage increases with hot weather, generation outages and transmission constraints causing some high price events particularly in NSW. Over the month NSW had the highest prices on average - $220/MWh, up 184% from last month. QLD prices averaged $177, up 151%, TAS $96 (+92%) and SA $61 (+73%). VIC had the largest percentage increase (215%) but from a much lower starting point – averaging $64 for the month, up from $20 last month.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for November increased by 3.6% from October levels – given that there is 1 less day in November, this corresponds to a significant increase in operational demand due to some unseasonally early hot weather.
Gas generation increased significantly as did Solar. Wind was down again – 12% from last month.
Gas Generation
Gas generation increased significantly in November - up 89% from October levels. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 22% more than it was in November 2023.
By State, gas generation changes were almost all positive. The biggest increases were VIC, which increased 400%, while NSW jumped 220%. SA had a 76% rise, while QLD increased 67%. TAS gas generation was the only one to fall, -36% on very small numbers.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation increased 2% in November compared to October levels, above the average levels seen in the last 9-years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes fell through November. Storage ended the month at 6,723GWh (47% full), a decrease of 157GWh over the month. This is close to last year’s level and above the average level seen in the last 9 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also fell during November. Snowy finished the month 48% of full (2,546Gl) – a 5% decrease over the month. Levels are now below the 9-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for January to March shows:
- above average rainfall is likely for far eastern coastal regions and for much of western and northern Australia
- rainfall is likely to be within the typical range for the season for most remaining areas
- an increased chance of unusually high rainfall for parts of western and northern Australia
- warmer than average days are likely across large parts of the country
- warmer than average nights are very likely across almost all of Australia with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in November was 6,421GWh – 5% below October’s level, however it was 9% more than the same month last year. Wind generation decreased a further 13% from last month but was up 5% compared to October last year. Utility Scale Solar generation was up 7% from October levels and up 5% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices increased or were flat through November in all States, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL25 was up 7% at $130/MWh, CAL26 was up 0.8% at $121.5, while CAL27 closed flat at $121.5. CAL28 settled at $123 – up 2%.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices for CY 2025 were up 5% at $114. CAL26 increased 1.5% closing at $103, while CAL27 finished down 1% at $95. CAL28 traded flat at $95.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL25 were up 10% at $80.5, CAL26 was up 4% at $74, while CAL27 was up 1% at $69. CAL28 traded down 6% at $71.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $17.86/GJ – up 8% from last month. Forecast average price for 2024 was flat at $15.09. Forecast prices for 2025 were up 11% at $19.35/GJ. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices increased again through November. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $13.9/GJ, a 7% increase from October levels. This is still well below the LNG netback price. Prices are 22% above what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility rose slowly through November. Storage increased to 14PJ – a 5% increase over the month. Storage remains below the average levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 8 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 3.5 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing was flat over the last month.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate fell through the month ending just above 0.65. This would tend to push up LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in November fell, ending the month at US$138/T – a 3% decrease on the October close. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
High international coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 4 years.
After recent falls, VEECs rebounded – up 8% at $113. ACCUs also increased, up 6% at $40.75. Spot LGCs and ESCs both had large falls, down 22% and 12% to $28.5 and $14.5 respectively. STCs were unchanged at $39.9.
Future dated LGCs had significant reductions in all years through November. CAL24 was down 7% at $34.25, CAL25 down 7% at $34.5, while CAL26 decreased by 10% to $25.75. CAL27 decreased by 9% to $22.18 while CAL28 also fell 4% to $20.15.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed informationwhich can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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