The National Electricity Market
Wholesale electricity prices in March were either flat or decreased in all States apart from VIC which had a small lift in average price. SA decreased the most, down 32% to $62/MWh. TAS also had a significant fall, down 18% at $100. VIC fell 10% to $62 while NSW was unchanged at $90. QLD was the only State where there was an increase in average price, up 5% to $79/MWh.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for March increased by 10% from February levels. Given that there were 3 more days in March and falling roof-top solar, this corresponds to a decrease in underlying demand for the month.
Solar generation decreased significantly as did Gas. Coal generation was up 16% while Hydro and Wind generation also increased in line with the overall level of increase in demand.
Gas Generation
Gas generation decreased significantly in March – down 14% compared to February. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 8% lower than it was in March 2024 and was the lowest level for March in the last 6 years.
Gas generation was down in most States. VIC gas generation fell 44%, NSW 36% and QLD 14%. There was a 5% increase in SA while TAS increased by 60% on very small numbers.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation increased 10% in March compared to February levels, just below the average levels seen in the last 10-years, for this time of year, as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes fell through March. Storage ended the month at 5,591GWh (39% full), a decrease of 409GWh over the month. This is 8% more than the same time last year and above the highest level seen at this time of year in the last 10 years, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage also fell during March. Snowy finished the month 43% of full (2,283Gl) – a 4.4% decrease over the month. Levels remain just below the 10-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
The long-range forecast for April to June shows:
- rainfall is expected to be within the typical range for April to June across most of Australia, but above average across areas of the far north and east, and below average for parts of far south
- warmer than average days are very likely across most of Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high daytime temperatures across most of the country
- warmer than average nights are very likely across Australia, with an increased chance of unusually high overnight temperatures nationwide.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in March was 6,527GWh – down 5% from last month’s level, but up 10% on the same month last year. Utility Scale Solar generation was down 10% from February levels but up 4% over the same month last year. Wind generation increased 9% from last month and was also up 20% compared to March 2024.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices were largely flat or increased slightly through March in all States, across every calendar year.
In NSW CAL25 was up 2% at $113/MWh, CAL26 was flat at $119, while CAL27 closed up 2% at $120. CAL28 settled at $122 – up 1%.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices followed a similar pattern to NSW. CY 2025 was up 4% at $101. CAL26 increased 1% closing at $102, while CAL27 finished up 3% at $96.5. CAL28 traded up 1% at $94.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL25 were up 1% at $76, CAL26 was up 1.5% at $76, while CAL27 was up 2% at $75. CAL28 was also up 2% at $75.5.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $18.45/GJ – down 10% from last month. Forecast prices for 2025 were down 3% at $18.69/GJ. Forward prices for 2026 were up 1% at $16.41/GJ. (Note that netback prices are indicative of international prices – they are produced by the ACCC and quoted in Australian dollars. They are net of the estimated costs to convert from pipeline gas in Australia to LNG, hence the term “netback”)
Domestic spot gas prices were flat through March. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $13.7/GJ, unchanged from February levels. This is still well below the LNG netback price. Prices are 17% above what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility continued rising through March. Storage increased to 24PJ – a 7% increase over the month. Storage is close to the maximum levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 9 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 4 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead. Futures pricing were up over the last month.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. The exchange rate increased slightly during March to close to 0.63 but remained near the lowest levels seen in recent years. This would tend to push up LPG prices when quoted in AUD.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in March were flat ending the month at US$100/T. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
International coal prices continue to be an important driver of electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 4.5 years.
Prices were flat or down for most environmental certificates through March for all varieties apart from ESCs. Spot LGCs fell a further 13% to $22.5 while ACCUs dropped 1% to $33. VEECs and STCs were unchanged at $108.5 and $39.9 respectively. ESCs were up 4% at 14.5.
The steep decline in future dated LGC prices seen in recent months accelerated in March. CAL25 was down 17% at $23, while CAL26 decreased by 13% to $20.6. CAL27 fell by 15% to $14.7 while CAL28 fell 26% to 12.7. CAL29 fell 28% to $11.75.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
Disclaimer
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