The National Electricity Market
April saw large increases in wholesale spot prices in all States. VIC prices increased 63% to $85, while QLD also averaged $85 (up 14%). NSW was up 27% at $90 and SA was up 38% at $92.5. TAS increased 5% to $73.
Electricity Generation Mix
Total grid-scale generation for April decreased by 6.7% from March levels – corrected for the decreased days in the month, and reduced roof-top solar output, this amounts to a significant reduction in demand. Moving through the shoulder Autumn period will account for most of this reduction.
Decreased wind and solar was offset by increased hydro and gas generation. Coal decreased in line with the overall decrease in demand
Gas Generation
Gas generation increased in April - up 9% from March levels. Compared to 12 months ago gas generation was 16% less than it was in April 2023.
By State, gas generation changes were mainly positive. VIC increased 30% while SA was up 18%. QLD was up 6% and TAS increased 170% (on very small numbers). On the flip side, NSW dropped 24%.
Hydro Generation
Hydro generation increased 10% in April compared to March levels and was close to the 9-year average as shown below.
Storage in Hydro Tasmania’s lakes continued to drop through April. Storage ended the month at 4,790GWh (33% full), a decrease of 388GWh over the month. This is 5% less than at the same time last year and is now close to the 9 year average level, for this time of year, as shown in the following chart.
Snowy Hydro’s storage decreased again during April. Snowy finished the month 54% of full (2,875Gl) – down 3% over the month. Levels remain well above the 9-year average for this time of year as shown in the following chart.
Climate outlook overview (from BOM)
May rainfall is likely to be below median for most of Australia, shifting to close to equal chances of above or below median rainfall in June.
May maximum and minimum temperatures are likely to be above median for much of Australia however below median minimum temperatures are likely for parts of the southern mainland.
May to July maximum and minimum temperatures have an increased likelihood of being unusually warm for most of Australia.
New Renewable Generation (Excluding Hydro)
Total renewable generation (wind and solar, including roof-top solar) in April was 4,788GWh – down 19% on last month but 5% up on April 2023. Wind generation was down 18% on March levels and down 4% compared to April last year. Utility Scale Solar generation was also down 18% from March levels but up 13% over the same month last year.
The following chart shows the monthly energy produced for each of these renewable types since 2017.
The Electricity Futures Market
Futures prices increased in April, in all States, across all calendar years.
In NSW CAL25 was up 10% at $112, CAL26 was up 10% at $114, while CAL27 closed at $113.5 - up 4% over the month.
Calendar Year Contracts for New South Wales
QLD prices for CY 2025 had a 12.5% increase to $99. CAL26 increased 9% closing at $95, while CAL27 finished up 7.5% at $91.5.
Calendar Year Contracts for Queensland
VIC futures prices for CAL25 closed up 17% at $74.5, CAL26 was up 10.5% at $69 while CAL27 was up 6.5% closing at $63.
Calendar Year Contracts for Victoria
SA has less liquidity in the futures markets than other States, so changes tend to be lumpier and less a true reflection of the underlying market. For completeness we have included the graph below.
Calendar Year Contracts for South Australia
The Gas Market
Internationally, LNG netback prices ended the month at $12.56/GJ – up 15% from last month. Forecast prices for 2024 increased marginally to $13.62 – up 2% compared to March. Forecast prices for 2025 were also up 4% at $14.71/GJ.
Domestic spot gas prices were flat through April. The following graph shows the 30-day rolling average price at Wallumbilla gas supply hub – ending the month at $11.7/GJ, a 0.1% decrease from March levels. This is slightly below the regulated gas price cap of $12/GJ and the LNG netback price. Prices are 4% below what they were the same time last year.
Gas storage at the key Iona storage facility increased through April. Storage ended the month at 24PJ – a 4% increase over the month. Storage is back close to the maximum levels we have seen at this time of year for the past 8 years.
LPG is an important fuel for many large energy users, particularly in areas where reticulated natural gas is not available. The contract price of LPG is typically set by international benchmarks such as the Saudi Aramco LPG – normally quoted in US$ per metric tonne.
The following graph shows the Saudi Aramco LPG pricing for the last 3 years as well as forecast pricing for the year ahead.
The other main contributing factor to LPG prices in Australia is the exchange rate against the USD. As shown below this has been falling over the last few years adding to domestic LPG prices.
The Coal Market
The global energy crisis has been as much about coal as it has gas. The war in the Ukraine has driven energy prices, including coal, up. Prices in April were up, ending the month at US$145/T – a 20% increase on the March close. These prices are finally returning to levels close to what we expect to see as shown in the following graph of prices over the last 10 years.
High international coal prices continue to be an important driver of high electricity prices especially in the States most reliant on black coal generation – ie QLD and NSW. However, the coal price cap of $AUD125/tonne introduced by Governments in December 2022 has dampened the impact on electricity prices. This cap is due to expire at the end of June this year.
Environmental Certificates
The following graph shows environmental certificate spot prices over the last 3.5 years.
Environmental certificates were a mixed bag during April. VEECs increased another 4%, hovering just below the $100 mark at $98. ACCUs were also up 4% at $33.75 while STCs remained flat at just under the $40 cap. Spot LGCs decreased slightly to $46.5 (-1%) while ESCs fell 10% to $19.65.
Future dated LGCs were unchanged or marginally up across the board through April. CAL24 was flat at $49, CAL25 slightly higher at $48.75, while CAL26 increased by 1% to $40.5. CAL27 also increased by 1% to $34.43 while CAL28 rose 2% to $29.25.
About this Report
This energy market summary report provides information on wholesale price trends for all regions within the National Electricity Market (NEM) and environmental scheme certificates.
Please note that all electricity prices are presented as a $ per MWh price and all certificate prices as a $ per certificate price.
All NEM spot prices are published by the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO). Futures contract prices are sourced from ASX.
Further information can be found at the locations noted below.
- NEM Spot market – AEMO publishes a range of detailed information which can be found here: https://aemo.com.au/Electricity/National-Electricity-Market-NEM/Data-dashboard
- Weather and Climate data – The Bureau of Meteorology publishes a range of weather related information which can be found here: http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/
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